20 of 36 matches on Tue 29 Sep are priced by a blend of our model and the bookmakers; 13 are priced by the bookmakers; 3 are priced by our model. How each source has done
Every number says whose it is. No sport's numbers are validated as better than the bookmakers' yet. How we grade
The bookmakers' favourite won 24 of 34 matches.
Upset: Finland were the bookmakers' 61% favourites and drew 0–0.
Our blend's call: wrong
Upset: Faroe Islands were the bookmakers' 36% favourites and drew 1–1.
Our blend's call: wrong
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
Upset: Bulgaria were the bookmakers' 55% favourites and drew 0–0.
Our blend's call: wrong
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
Upset: Mexico were the bookmakers' 61% favourites and drew 1–1.
Our blend's call: wrong
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Upset: Algeria were the bookmakers' 73% favourites and drew 2–2.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Upset: Madagascar were the bookmakers' 40% favourites and drew 1–1.
Upset: Cape Verde Islands were the bookmakers' 65% favourites and lost 1–2.
Upset: Ghana were the bookmakers' 67% favourites and lost 2–4.
Upset: Nigeria were the bookmakers' 61% favourites and lost 0–3.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Upset: Cameroon were the bookmakers' 57% favourites and drew 1–1.
Our blend's call: wrong
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
Our model's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
Our model's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our model's call: wrong
Scores updated 1:58 AM EST
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Model + bookmakers blend (ours): its favourite won 60% of 328 matches. It gave its favourite 53% on average: too cautious.
Model (ours): too few to say (4).
Over 463 matches in the last 60 days, the bookmakers' closing prices were slightly more accurate than ours.
Published cards: 105 of 140 came in (cards share legs; small sample).
Our soccer numbers are not validated as better than the bookmakers' yet.