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Match analysis · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Research workspace

Mozambique 4-1 Sudan: Match Analysis & Model Review

Mozambique 4-1 Sudan in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification, Tuesday, September 29: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Mozambique beat Sudan 4-1 in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Tuesday, September 29, turning a narrow half-time advantage into a commanding performance after the break. Sudan reduced the deficit late, but Mozambique had already established a decisive cushion and remained the only side to lead.

The scoreline reflected Mozambique’s attacking output, with Chamito Alfandega scoring two goals and Ricardo Martins Guimarães also finding the net. Yasin Hamed’s penalty was Sudan’s reply, arriving after Mozambique had built a four-goal lead.

How it unfolded

Witiness Quembo opened the scoring for Mozambique in the 24th minute, making it 1-0. The teams reached half-time at 1-0, with Mozambique in front.

Chamito Alfandega scored in the 46th minute to make it 2-0. Ricardo Martins Guimarães extended the advantage in the 58th minute, and Chamito Alfandega struck again in the 62nd minute for 4-0. The goals gave Chamito Alfandega a brace.

Yasin Hamed converted a penalty for Sudan in the 88th minute, changing the score to 4-1. Mozambique had held a four-goal lead at 4-0; Sudan’s late goal narrowed the margin without changing the outcome.

The numbers

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Matches
Predictions
My Picks

Mozambique had 65% possession and Sudan 35%. The shot totals were 12 for Mozambique and 10 for Sudan, with 5 and 4 on target respectively. Mozambique recorded 3 corners and Sudan 6, while the goalkeepers made 3 saves for Mozambique and 1 for Sudan.

Those figures give the match a fuller shape beyond the scoreline: the sides registered 12 and 10 attempts, and each had shots on target. Mozambique’s possession share was 65%; Sudan’s was 35%. Sudan’s 6 corners and late penalty feature in the numbers alongside Mozambique’s four goals.

Standout performers

Guima was Mozambique’s best-rated player, earning 8.5 with 1 goal and 1 assist. His contribution came in a match where Mozambique scored four goals, while Chamito Alfandega supplied two goals.

Aamir Yunis Abdallah was Sudan’s best-rated player, with a rating of 6.4. Sudan did find a goal through Yasin Hamed, but it arrived only after Mozambique had built its substantial advantage.

How the model called it

Goalorithm’s probabilities are estimates. Before kickoff, the model gave Mozambique a win probability of 55.6%, a draw 25.1%, and a Sudan win 19.3%. Its most likely outcome was Mozambique to win, with 55.6% attached to that result.

The match finished with a 4-1 win for Mozambique over Sudan: the model's most likely outcome happened.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Mozambique vs Sudan

Tue, Sep 29 · 9:00 AM ET

Full time

4–1

Half-time 1–0

  • 24'Witiness Quembo1–0
  • 46'Chamito Alfandega2–0
  • 58'Ricardo Martins Guimarães3–0
  • 62'Chamito Alfandega4–0
  • 88'Yasin Hamed (penalty)4–1

The model before the game

Mozambique
55.6%
Draw
25.1%
Sudan
19.3%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

MozambiqueStatisticSudan
3saves1
12shots10
3corners6
65%possession35%
5shots on target4
Open the Match Center

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