Published October 2, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Moreirense host GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga on Friday, October 9, with both sides arriving off draws. The model puts a GIL Vicente win first in its outcome order, but the figures leave a close contest rather than a clear separation between the teams.
What the model expects
These figures are estimates. The model's order is a GIL Vicente win (37.5%), then a Moreirense win (34.8%), then a draw (27.7%). Its expected goals are 1.5 for Moreirense and 1.4 for GIL Vicente, a narrow difference that sits alongside the model's closely grouped match outcomes.
The most likely exact score is 1-1 at 12.4%; 2-1 at 8.4% and 0-0 at 7.9% complete the three leading scorelines. The model gives over 2.5 goals at 54.2% and under 2.5 goals at 45.8%. It gives both teams a chance of scoring at 57.3%, while 42.7% is the chance that at least one side fails to score. The latter does not mean the match is expected to finish goalless: the model's leading scoreline has a goal for each team.
Form and standings
Moreirense's recent sequence is DWLLW, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats and 6 goals scored and 8 conceded. Their latest result was a 1-1 away draw with Vitória SC on September 20; they are unbeaten in their last 2. The record includes wins, a draw and defeats, while their goals total shows that they have both scored and conceded across this stretch.
GIL Vicente's sequence is DLLDW, amounting to 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats and 4 goals scored and 5 conceded. Their latest match was a 1-1 home draw with Maritimo on September 19, and they are without a win in their last 4. The two sides' recent records therefore come with different current runs, though both have a draw in their latest result.