Published October 2, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Borussia Dortmund host Werder Bremen in Bundesliga on Friday, October 9 at 2:30 p.m. ET, with the hosts arriving on 5 wins in a row and the visitors unbeaten in their last 3. The model’s outcome order is a Borussia Dortmund win (68.8%), then a draw (17.4%), then a Werder Bremen win (13.9%). The fixture brings together sides whose recent results and league positions give the match a clear competitive frame.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s likeliest result is a Borussia Dortmund win, and its expected-goals figures are 2.4 for Borussia Dortmund and 0.5 for Werder Bremen. Its leading scoreline is 2-0 (15.9%), followed by 1-0 (13.9%) and 3-0 (12.2%).
The model gives over 2.5 goals at 53.2% and under 2.5 goals at 46.8%. It expects both teams to score in 34% of outcomes, while at least one side fails to score in 66%. The model’s lean is Borussia Dortmund to win. Against the market, the model gives a Borussia Dortmund win 68.8%, in line with the bookmakers' 69.2%. The leading exact-score outcomes each have Werder Bremen failing to score, consistent with the expected-goals projection for the visitors. The model still assigns probability to a draw and an away win, as well as to its preferred outcome.
Form and standings
Borussia Dortmund’s recent sequence is WWWWW. They have 5 wins, with 11 goals scored and 2 conceded, and their latest result was a 1-0 away win against VfB Stuttgart on September 19. They sit 1st in Bundesliga with 12 points from 4 games. The sequence and latest result give a snapshot of the hosts’ current run, while the goals record adds detail on their recent results.