Published October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
FC Augsburg host Bayern München in Bundesliga on Saturday, October 10 at 9:30 a.m. ET. The model’s likeliest result is a Bayern München win, while the head-to-head picture carries a recent reminder that Augsburg can trouble Bayern: the latest meeting was Bayern München 1-2 FC Augsburg (January 2026). Augsburg are without a win in their last 2; Bayern arrive on 2 wins in a row.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model gives Bayern München 71.7%, with 15.7% for a draw and 12.7% for an FC Augsburg win. Its expected-goals figures are 1.2 for FC Augsburg and 1.5 for Bayern München, pointing to a match in which both sides have a route to goal without changing the model’s preference for the visitors.
The likeliest exact score is 1-1, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. The goals figures are over 2.5 goals at 49.8% and under 2.5 goals at 50.2%; the model has both teams scoring at 53.6%, while its figure for at least one side failing to score is 46.4%. These projections leave room for a close contest even as the model favours Bayern München.
Form and standings
FC Augsburg’s last 5 games read LDWWL, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats and 11 goals scored and 10 conceded. Their most recent outing was a 3-2 away defeat to Werder Bremen on September 19, leaving them without a win in their last 2. The results include wins as well as defeats, and the latest loss means Augsburg head into this meeting without a win in their current run.