Published October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Union Berlin host SV Elversberg in Bundesliga on Saturday, October 10 at 9:30 a.m. ET. The model names an away win as its likeliest result, while Union Berlin arrive on 3 defeats in a row.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model gives SV Elversberg 40.1%, Union Berlin 35.4% and a draw 24.5%; its outcome order is an SV Elversberg win (40.1%), then a Union Berlin win (35.4%), then a draw (24.5%). The bookmakers' ordering is a Union Berlin win (41.4%), then an SV Elversberg win (33.5%), then a draw (25.1%), so their preferred outcome differs from the model's. The model's view is the model gives an SV Elversberg win 40.1%, above the bookmakers' 33.5%.
The goals forecast points towards scoring. The model expects over 2.5 goals at 78%, against under 2.5 goals at 22%, and gives both teams to score 74.8%; at least one side fails to score in 25.2% of its projections. Its expected-goals figures are Union Berlin 1.8 and SV Elversberg 2.5. The likeliest exact scores are 1-2 (7.6%), 1-1 (6.9%) and 2-2 (6.5%). The model's stated lean is over 2.5 goals.
Form and standings
Union Berlin have LLLDW across their most recent 5 games, a record of 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 8 goals scored and 17 conceded. Their latest outing was a 7-0 away defeat to Bayern München on September 18, and the current sequence is 3 defeats in a row. Across that spell they have conceded more than they have scored.