Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Mozambique 4–1 Sudan. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Mozambique host Sudan in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Tuesday, September 29 at 9:00 a.m. ET. Goalorithm’s model makes Mozambique the likeliest winner, but its forecast also leaves room for a draw and a Sudan win. Its expected-goals figures are 1.3 for Mozambique and 0.5 for Sudan, pointing to a greater share of the projected scoring for the hosts.
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s stated lean is under 2.5 goals, setting up a forecast in which a Mozambique win is the leading outcome but a high-scoring game is not the expected shape.
What the model expects
The model’s likeliest result is a Mozambique win. Across the three possible outcomes, its order is a Mozambique win (49.6%), then a draw (30.7%), then a Sudan win (19.7%). That makes a Mozambique win the result to beat in the forecast, while the draw remains a meaningful alternative and a Sudan win is also represented.
The model gives under 2.5 goals at 72.8%, compared with over 2.5 goals at 27.2%. It assigns 29.3% to both teams scoring and 70.7% to at least one side failing to score. Those measures describe separate aspects of the goal forecast: the total number of goals and whether both sides find the net. Together with the stated lean, they point towards a match where scoring may be limited rather than a contest expected to open up.