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Match analysis · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Research workspace

Cape Verde Islands 1-2 Rwanda: Match Analysis & Model Review

Cape Verde Islands 1-2 Rwanda in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification, Tuesday, September 29: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Rwanda beat Cape Verde Islands 1-2 in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Tuesday, September 29, with the decisive goal arriving after the interval. The sides were level at half-time, but Rwanda turned the match around through goals either side of the break.

Cape Verde Islands struck first, and Rwanda responded before the interval. The second-half goal completed the turnaround and settled a match in which both sides had been in front.

How it unfolded

Gilson Benchimol put Cape Verde Islands ahead in the 40th minute, making it 1-0. Claude Niyomugabo equalised for Rwanda in the 45th minute (+2); 1-1 was the half-time score.

Elie Tatou Iradukunda scored for Rwanda in the 52nd minute, putting his side ahead 1-2. That remained the final score. Both sides led at some point; the lead changed hands once; the score was levelled once.

The numbers

The match finished with three goals: Cape Verde Islands scored one goal and Rwanda scored two goals. Cape Verde Islands recorded 6 shots and 2 on target; Rwanda had 4 shots and 1 on target.

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Matches
Predictions
My Picks

Possession was 64% for Cape Verde Islands and 36% for Rwanda. The corner count was 1 to 3, while the saves figures were 0 and 1. The numbers describe a match in which the scoreline favoured Rwanda despite Cape Verde Islands having the larger share of possession and more attempts.

Standout performers

Ryan Mendes was Cape Verde Islands' best-rated player, with a rating of 7.7 and 1 assist. Rwanda's best-rated player was F. Ntwari, rated 7.4.

How the model called it

These probabilities are estimates. Before kick-off, Goalorithm's model gave Cape Verde Islands a 64.6% chance of winning and the draw 23.5% chance. The likeliest outcome was Cape Verde Islands to win.

The model gave Rwanda's actual win 11.9%. The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Cape Verde Islands vs Rwanda

Tue, Sep 29 · 12:00 PM ET · Estadio Nacional de Cabo Verde

Full time

1–2

Half-time 1–1

  • 40'Gilson Benchimol1–0
  • 45'+2Claude Niyomugabo1–1
  • 52'Elie Tatou Iradukunda1–2

The model before the game

Cape Verde Islands
64.6%
Draw
23.5%
Rwanda
11.9%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

Cape Verde IslandsStatisticRwanda
0saves1
6shots4
1corners3
64%possession36%
2shots on target1
Open the Match Center

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