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Match analysis · CONCACAF Nations League

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British Virgin Islands 0-3 Turks and Caicos Islands: Match Analysis & Model Review

British Virgin Islands 0-3 Turks and Caicos Islands in the CONCACAF Nations League, Tuesday, September 29: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Turks and Caicos Islands beat British Virgin Islands 0-3 in the CONCACAF Nations League on Tuesday, September 29, with Billy Forbes scoring two goals. The half-time score was 0-1, and goals after the break completed a 3-0 win for Turks and Caicos Islands over British Virgin Islands.

An early opener gave Turks and Caicos Islands control of the scoreline, with British Virgin Islands unable to reply. Only Turks and Caicos Islands ever led, and Turks and Caicos Islands eventually held a three-goal lead.

How it unfolded

Billy Forbes opened the scoring for Turks and Caicos Islands in the 9th minute, making it 0-1. That remained the score at the interval, with British Virgin Islands trailing 0-1.

Junior Paul extended the lead in the 52nd minute, changing the score to 0-2. Billy Forbes struck again in the 74th minute to make it 0-3, completing a brace. The sequence left Turks and Caicos Islands with a three-goal lead and no goals conceded.

The numbers

Turks and Caicos Islands recorded 13 shots to British Virgin Islands' 2; the shots-on-target figures were 3 and 0 respectively. The difference in attempts came with possession close to even: Turks and Caicos Islands had 51%, against 49% for British Virgin Islands. The attempt totals and the target figures show the contrast between Turks and Caicos Islands' attacking output and British Virgin Islands' lack of a shot on target.

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Turks and Caicos Islands also had 5 corners to British Virgin Islands' 2. The saves figures were 0 for Turks and Caicos Islands and 1 for British Virgin Islands. All three goals were scored by Turks and Caicos Islands; British Virgin Islands finished without a goal.

Standout performers

Billy Forbes was the highest-rated player for Turks and Caicos Islands, earning 9.0 with 2 goals. He opened the scoring and added the final goal, his second of the match.

Javaun Splatt was British Virgin Islands' best-rated player, with a rating of 7.0. That recognition came in a match where British Virgin Islands managed 2 shots and did not score.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, Goalorithm's estimates gave British Virgin Islands a win probability of 34.5%, a draw 25.6%, and a Turks and Caicos Islands win 40%. The model's most likely outcome was Turks and Caicos Islands to win, with a probability of 40%. These probabilities are estimates.

Turks and Caicos Islands took the lead early and extended it after the break, turning the model's preferred outcome into the result. The model's most likely outcome happened.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

CONCACAF Nations League

British Virgin Islands vs Turks and Caicos Islands

Tue, Sep 29 · 3:00 PM ET · TCIFA National Academy

Full time

0–3

Half-time 0–1

  • 9'Billy Forbes0–1
  • 52'Junior Paul0–2
  • 74'Billy Forbes0–3

The model before the game

British Virgin Islands
34.5%
Draw
25.6%
Turks and Caicos Islands
40%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

British Virgin IslandsStatisticTurks and Caicos Islands
1saves0
2shots13
2corners5
49%possession51%
0shots on target3
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