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Match analysis · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

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South Sudan 0-5 Egypt: Match Analysis & Model Review

South Sudan 0-5 Egypt in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification, Tuesday, September 29: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Egypt beat South Sudan 0-5 in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Tuesday, September 29, leading 0-1 at half-time before adding further goals. Mostafa Zico opened the scoring, and Omar Marmoush struck after the restart. Ibrahim Adel, Omar Marmoush and Hamza Abdelkarim completed the scoring.

South Sudan scored no goals, while Egypt scored five goals; five goals were scored in all. Only Egypt ever led, and Egypt reached a five-goal lead at 0-5. The final score records a win for Egypt, with Omar Marmoush scoring two goals.

How it unfolded

Mostafa Zico scored for Egypt in the 36th minute, making it 0-1. The teams went into the interval at 0-1. Omar Marmoush extended Egypt's lead in the 49th minute, moving the score to 0-2.

Ibrahim Adel made it 0-3 in the 75th minute. Omar Marmoush scored again in the 83rd minute, and Hamza Abdelkarim completed the sequence in the 90th minute (+2), making the score 0-5. Omar Marmoush scored a brace; Egypt held a five-goal lead at the final score.

The numbers

South Sudan had 12 shots, including 1 on target; Egypt recorded 19 shots, with 10 on target. Possession was 39% for South Sudan and 61% for Egypt.

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Matches
Predictions
My Picks

The corner counts were 3 for South Sudan and 4 for Egypt. The saves figures were 5 for South Sudan and 1 for Egypt. Those totals sit alongside the margin, while the shot and possession figures give a fuller account of the match's recorded numbers.

Standout performers

Omar Marmoush was Egypt's best-rated player, with a rating of 9.8 and 2 goals. He scored a brace, including the goal that moved the score to 0-4.

South Sudan's best-rated player was Jamu Akou Arum Iluya, who received a rating of 6.6.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, Goalorithm's estimates gave South Sudan a 4.3% chance of winning, a draw 11.4%, and an Egypt win 84.3%. These are estimates. The model's most likely outcome was Egypt to win, and it gave that outcome 84.3%. The model's most likely outcome happened.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

South Sudan vs Egypt

Tue, Sep 29 · 9:00 AM ET · Juba Stadium

Full time

0–5

Half-time 0–1

  • 36'Mostafa Zico0–1
  • 49'Omar Marmoush0–2
  • 75'Ibrahim Adel0–3
  • 83'Omar Marmoush0–4
  • 90'+2Hamza Abdelkarim0–5

The model before the game

South Sudan
4.3%
Draw
11.4%
Egypt
84.3%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

South SudanStatisticEgypt
5saves1
12shots19
3corners4
39%possession61%
1shots on target10
Open the Match Center

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