Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: South Sudan 0–5 Egypt. Read the match analysis →
Preview
South Sudan host Egypt in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Tuesday, September 29 at 9:00 a.m. ET, with the model pointing to an Egypt win as its likeliest result. The game is at Juba Stadium, Juba; the probabilities are estimates, and the forecast also allows for a draw or a South Sudan win.
The model’s expected-goals figures are 0.5 for South Sudan and 2.3 for Egypt. They provide a separate view of the scoring outlook from the result probabilities: expected goals describe projected scoring, not a guaranteed scoreline. The model also gives a range of possible exact scores and goal totals, rather than identifying one certain way the match will play out.
What the model expects
The model gives the result outlook as an Egypt win (78.3%), then a draw (15.4%), then a South Sudan win (6.4%). Its likeliest result is an Egypt win. That is the clearest single outcome in the forecast, while the other listed possibilities leave room for the result to go another way.
The leading exact-score projections are 0-2 at 16.1%, 0-1 at 15.4% and 0-3 at 12.2%. These are distinct scoreline estimates, not a prediction that the match must follow one of them. Each of the listed scores has South Sudan failing to score, but that feature of the leading score calls does not rule out other outcomes in the model’s wider forecast.
For the match goal total, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 52.7% and under 2.5 goals at 47.3%. Its both-teams-to-score estimate is 33.1%, while the estimate for at least one side failing to score is 66.9%. The latter is not limited to a goalless draw: it includes outcomes where one side scores and the other does not. Taken together, these figures describe separate aspects of the model’s view—the likely result, possible scorelines, total goals and whether both sides find the net.