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Match analysis · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Research workspace

Gabon 2-0 Niger: Match Analysis & Model Review

Gabon 2-0 Niger in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification, Tuesday, September 29: the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Gabon beat Niger 2-0 in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Tuesday, September 29, with a 2-0 win for Gabon over Niger. The teams were level at half-time, 0-0, before Gabon finished with two goals and Niger with no goals; the match produced two goals overall.

The numbers

The shot count was 3 for Gabon and 4 for Niger, with 1 and 1 shots on target respectively. That is a close split in attempts and an equal tally of shots on target, despite the difference in the final score. The figures show that the result was not built on a clear gap in shooting volume. Gabon had 63% possession to Niger’s 37%, while the corner count was 3 for Gabon and 3 for Niger. The ball share favoured Gabon, but the corner totals were level. Saves were 1 for Gabon and 1 for Niger, adding another even measure to a match whose scoreline ultimately separated the sides. Taken together, the statistics point to a game with few shots on target and no advantage in corners for either team. The decisive difference is captured by the goals: Gabon scored, while Niger did not.

Standout performers

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Matches
Predictions
My Picks

U. Mboula was Gabon’s best-rated player, with a rating of 7.2. For Niger, R. Alhassane led the ratings with 6.9. Those ratings mark the top performer for each side; they do not alter the broader picture of an evenly shared count of shots on target and corners. U. Mboula’s rating came in a winning performance, while R. Alhassane recorded Niger’s highest rating in defeat.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, Goalorithm’s model gave Gabon a win probability of 32.3%, a draw probability of 27.2% and a Niger win probability of 40.5%. These probabilities are estimates. The model’s most likely outcome was Niger to win, and it gave the actual result a probability of 32.3%; the result went against the model's most likely outcome. The forecast therefore pointed to a different outcome from the one that settled the match. A Gabon win was present in the model’s assessment, but it was not the outcome the model identified as most likely. The final score delivered a clear result for Gabon, while the pre-match probabilities show that Goalorithm had favoured Niger to win.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Gabon vs Niger

Tue, Sep 29 · 3:00 PM ET · Stade de Franceville

Full time

2–0

Half-time 0–0

The model before the game

Gabon
32.3%
Draw
27.2%
Niger
40.5%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

GabonStatisticNiger
1saves1
3shots4
3corners3
63%possession37%
1shots on target1
Open the Match Center

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