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Match analysis · UEFA Nations League

Research workspace

Scotland 0-3 Switzerland: Match Analysis & Model Review

Scotland 0-3 Switzerland in the UEFA Nations League, Tuesday, September 29: the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

A 3-0 win for Switzerland over Scotland in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday, September 29, after Switzerland went into half-time with a 0-1 lead and completed the victory with a 0-3 scoreline. Scotland finished with no goals, Switzerland with three goals, and Jack Hendry of Scotland was sent off in the 11th minute.

The figures point to a match in which Switzerland had much more of the ball and created far more shooting opportunities. Scotland’s return of no goals left little room for a response, while Switzerland’s three goals settled the contest.

How it unfolded

The key disciplinary moment came when Jack Hendry of Scotland was sent off in the 11th minute. Scotland were behind 0-1 at the break, and the match ended 0-3, with Scotland recording no goals and Switzerland three goals.

The available match record does not give the timing of the goals, so the sequence beyond the red card and half-time score is not clear. The final score nonetheless shows Switzerland turning its first-half lead into a 3-0 win for Switzerland over Scotland.

The numbers

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Scotland registered 2 shots and 0 on target. Switzerland posted 12 shots, including 4 on target. That gap in attempts captures the difference in attacking output, while the on-target totals show Switzerland supplied the match’s recorded efforts on goal.

Possession was 25% for Scotland and 75% for Switzerland. The corner count was 2 for Scotland and 5 for Switzerland. Scotland’s goalkeeper made 2 saves; Switzerland’s made 0. Taken together, the figures describe a match where Scotland had limited possession and few attempts, while Switzerland carried the greater share of the attacking workload.

Standout performers

N. Elvedi was Switzerland’s best-rated player, earning 8.2 and contributing 1 goal. That rating and goal involvement give a clear individual marker of his contribution to the winning performance.

For Scotland, L. Ferguson received the team’s highest rating, 6.6. The rating identifies him as Scotland’s standout by the match assessment, despite the team’s failure to score.

How the model called it

Goalorithm’s pre-match probabilities were estimates: it gave Scotland a win chance of 28.1%, a draw 27.5%, and a Switzerland win 44.4%. The model’s most likely outcome was Switzerland to win, with 44.4% attached to the actual result; the model's most likely outcome happened.

The outcome therefore matched the model’s stated pre-match view. Switzerland’s win was the model’s most likely result, and the final score delivered that outcome.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

Scotland vs Switzerland

Tue, Sep 29 · 2:45 PM ET · Hampden Park Stadium

Full time

0–3

Half-time 0–1

The model before the game

Scotland
28.1%
Draw
27.5%
Switzerland
44.4%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

ScotlandStatisticSwitzerland
2saves0
2shots12
2corners5
25%possession75%
0shots on target4
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