Published September 27, 2026 · Updated September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Scotland 0–3 Switzerland. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Scotland host Switzerland in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday, September 29 at 2:45 p.m. ET, with the model making a Switzerland win its likeliest result. The forecast also leans towards under 2.5 goals, setting up a contrast between its preference for Switzerland and its restrained goals outlook. The match is at Hampden Park Stadium, Glasgow.
What the model expects
The model gives Scotland 23.2%, a draw 27.3% and Switzerland 49.5%. These probabilities are estimates. Its likeliest result is a Switzerland win; the draw and a Scotland win also feature in the forecast, so the result is not presented as settled.
The expected-goals figures are Scotland 0.8 and Switzerland 1.5. For the goal line, the model gives under 2.5 goals at 61.3% and over 2.5 goals at 38.8%, with its stated lean under 2.5 goals. It gives both teams to score 41.5%; its probability for at least one side to fail to score is 58.5%. That second measure includes outcomes other than a goalless draw.
The leading exact-score forecasts are 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.5%) and 1-1 (11.2%). They show the model's possible scorelines, rather than a single promised script: its leading scores include a goalless draw, a narrow Switzerland win and a 1-1 draw. The combination of those forecasts and the goals lean makes a low-scoring match central to the model's view.