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Match analysis · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

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Guinea-Bissau 3-0 Nigeria: Match Analysis & Model Review

Guinea-Bissau 3-0 Nigeria in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification, Tuesday, September 29: the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Guinea-Bissau beat Nigeria 3-0 in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Tuesday, September 29, having led 1-0 at half-time. Nigeria had more of the possession, but Guinea-Bissau turned its recorded attempts into three goals and kept Nigeria scoreless.

The outcome was a 3-0 win for Guinea-Bissau over Nigeria. The final score captures the difference in finishing: Guinea-Bissau scored with its chances, while Nigeria did not convert its attempts into a goal.

How it unfolded

Guinea-Bissau went into the interval in front, with the score at 1-0. The half-time score and final tally show that Guinea-Bissau added to its lead after the break to secure the win.

The numbers

The shot count was 4 for Guinea-Bissau and 3 for Nigeria; Guinea-Bissau put 2 on target and Nigeria put 1 on target. The modest attempt totals make the finishing difference central to the scoreline: Guinea-Bissau found the net, while Nigeria did not.

Possession stood at 44% for Guinea-Bissau and 56% for Nigeria. Nigeria had more of the ball, but that advantage did not bring a goal. The corner count was 1 for Guinea-Bissau and 2 for Nigeria; the save figures were 1 for Guinea-Bissau and 1 for Nigeria. The figures show a match in which possession and the final result went in different directions, with Guinea-Bissau producing the decisive return from its attacks.

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Standout performers

Franculino Djú was Guinea-Bissau's best-rated player, with a rating of 7.6 and 1 goal. The goal was a direct contribution to the win and made the standout performance count on the scoreboard.

For Nigeria, W. Ndidi was the best-rated player, earning 6.8. That recognition came in a match where Nigeria had more possession but could not score; the result belonged to Guinea-Bissau.

How the model called it

The pre-match probabilities are estimates. Goalorithm's model gave Guinea-Bissau a win probability of 16.8%, a draw probability of 22%, and a Nigeria win probability of 61.2%. Its most likely outcome was Nigeria to win, and it assigned the actual outcome a probability of 16.8%.

The verdict was that the result went against the model's most likely outcome. The model's pre-match view pointed to a Nigeria victory, while the match ended with Guinea-Bissau taking the points. The probabilities describe the model's assessment before kickoff; the match figures show how the result was delivered, with Guinea-Bissau scoring and Nigeria failing to find the net.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Guinea-Bissau vs Nigeria

Tue, Sep 29 · 12:00 PM ET · Estádio 24 de Setembro

Full time

3–0

Half-time 1–0

The model before the game

Guinea-Bissau
16.8%
Draw
22%
Nigeria
61.2%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

Guinea-BissauStatisticNigeria
1saves1
4shots3
1corners2
44%possession56%
2shots on target1
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