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Match analysis · UEFA Nations League

Research workspace

Luxembourg 0-3 Iceland: Match Analysis & Model Review

Luxembourg 0-3 Iceland in the UEFA Nations League, Tuesday, September 29: the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Iceland beat Luxembourg 0-3 in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday, September 29, with the sides 0-2 at half-time. The match ended with a 3-0 win for Iceland over Luxembourg, and Iceland’s scoring was already reflected in the break score.

Luxembourg had 57% possession but finished with no goals; Iceland had 43% possession and scored three goals. The figures show a contest in which possession did not translate into goals for Luxembourg, while Iceland’s scoring settled the result. The match was played at Stade de Luxembourg.

How it unfolded

The teams reached half-time at 0-2, and the final score was 0-3. The available scoring detail gives the team totals but not the timing or sequence of individual goals.

The numbers

Luxembourg had 4 shots, including 1 on target. Iceland recorded 11 shots, with 3 on target. The shot figures provide a measure of each side’s attempts, while the on-target totals show how many efforts were directed at goal. They do not identify the moments or circumstances behind those attempts.

Possession was 57% for Luxembourg and 43% for Iceland. Those figures describe the share of the ball, not the outcome: Luxembourg scored no goals, while Iceland scored three goals, for three goals overall.

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Luxembourg had 2 corners and Iceland had 1. The save totals were 1 for Luxembourg and 1 for Iceland. Alongside the shooting and possession figures, those counts round out the available statistical picture without supplying a fuller account of the chances or the goals.

Standout performers

A. Guðjohnsen was Iceland’s best-rated player, rated 9.0, with 1 goal and 1 assist. That contribution combines a goal with an assist in a match where Iceland scored three goals.

D. Carlson was Luxembourg’s best-rated player, with a rating of 6.7. The figures identify him as Luxembourg’s top-rated performer, without detailing a separate contribution to the scoring.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, the model’s probabilities were estimates: it gave Luxembourg a win probability of 33.5%, a draw probability of 29.2% and an Iceland win probability of 37.3%. Its most likely outcome was Iceland to win.

For the outcome that occurred, the model gave Iceland a probability of 37.3%; the model's most likely outcome happened.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

Luxembourg vs Iceland

Tue, Sep 29 · 2:45 PM ET · Stade de Luxembourg

Full time

0–3

Half-time 0–2

The model before the game

Luxembourg
33.5%
Draw
29.2%
Iceland
37.3%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

LuxembourgStatisticIceland
1saves1
4shots11
2corners1
57%possession43%
1shots on target3
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