Published September 27, 2026 · Updated September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Luxembourg 0–3 Iceland. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Luxembourg host Iceland in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday, September 29 at 2:45 p.m. ET. The model's likeliest result is an Iceland win, but its projections also include a draw and a Luxembourg win. The table shows Luxembourg sit above Iceland, while Luxembourg arrive on a winning run.
The model's expected-goals estimates are 1.1 for Luxembourg and 1.2 for Iceland. Its outcome forecast selects Iceland as its leading result, while the score projections include a goalless draw and an Iceland win. The probabilities are estimates; the model's view gives Iceland the most likely result.
What the model expects
The model gives Luxembourg 32.8%, a draw 28.6% and Iceland 38.6%. Its outcomes from likeliest down are an Iceland win (38.6%), then a Luxembourg win (32.8%), then a draw (28.6%). The bookmakers' outcomes from likeliest down are an Iceland win (40%), then a Luxembourg win (31.7%), then a draw (28.3%); the model gives an Iceland win 38.6%, below the bookmakers' 40%.
For total goals, the model has under 2.5 goals at 59.6% and over 2.5 goals at 40.4%, with its lean on under 2.5 goals. The most likely exact score is 0-0 at 14.1%, followed by 1-1 at 12.3% and 0-1 at 10.8%. The listed scores cover a draw and an Iceland win, with 0-0 the leading exact-score projection.
The model gives a 46.5% probability that both teams score, and 53.5% probability that at least one side fails to score. That second outcome does not mean a goalless draw is expected: it also includes scores in which one team scores and the other does not. The goal figures point towards under 2.5 goals, while the model's exact-score projections span both level outcomes and a win for Iceland.