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Match analysis · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Research workspace

Ethiopia 0-1 Senegal: Match Analysis & Model Review

Ethiopia 0-1 Senegal in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification, Tuesday, September 29: how the goal came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Senegal beat Ethiopia 0-1 in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Tuesday, September 29, with Ibrahim Mbaye scoring the decisive goal in the 11th minute. The half-time score was 0-1, and the match finished with one goal in all: a 1-0 win for Senegal over Ethiopia.

Senegal made its early lead count. Ethiopia registered 11 shots, but the team’s 1 shot on target did not bring an equaliser.

How it unfolded

Ibrahim Mbaye scored for Senegal in the 11th minute, making the score 0-1. That was the score at the break and at full time; only Senegal ever led.

The goal gave Senegal the advantage early in the match, and it remained the only goal. Ethiopia ended with no goals, while Senegal had one goal.

The numbers

Ethiopia had 11 shots, with 1 on target; Senegal recorded 7, including 3 on target. The figures show that Ethiopia produced attempts without turning them into a goal, while Senegal found the target and scored. The shot counts alone do not tell us how those opportunities arose.

Possession was 39% for Ethiopia and 61% for Senegal. Ethiopia won 5 corners, against 2 for Senegal. Those measures describe different parts of the contest: possession records time on the ball, while corners and shots register attacking actions. The single goal separated the sides.

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Matches
Predictions
My Picks

The save count was 2 for Ethiopia and 1 for Senegal. Senegal’s finish was enough to settle a game in which Ethiopia’s attempts did not produce a reply.

Standout performers

I. Mbaye was Senegal’s best-rated player, receiving 8.2 with 1 goal. The goal was the defining contribution in a match decided by a narrow scoreline, and the rating marks him out as the leading performer in the supplied player assessments.

Ethiopia’s best-rated player was B. Fikru, rated 6.8. That gives an individual reference point for Ethiopia despite the team leaving the match without a goal.

How the model called it

Goalorithm’s pre-match probabilities are estimates. The model gave Ethiopia a win probability of 8.1%, a draw 18.3% and a Senegal win 73.6%; its pre-match pick was Senegal to win.

The model gave the actual result 73.6%, and the model's most likely outcome happened. The final score was the model's 1st-likeliest score. Its call matched the outcome, and the early goal described above proved sufficient for Senegal to take the points.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Ethiopia vs Senegal

Tue, Sep 29 · 9:00 AM ET · Bahir Dar Stadium

Full time

0–1

Half-time 0–1

  • 11'Ibrahim Mbaye0–1

The model before the game

Ethiopia
8.1%
Draw
18.3%
Senegal
73.6%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

EthiopiaStatisticSenegal
2saves1
11shots7
5corners2
39%possession61%
1shots on target3
Open the Match Center

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