Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Ethiopia 0–1 Senegal. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Ethiopia host Senegal in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Tuesday, September 29 at 9:00 a.m. ET, with Goalorithm's model pointing firmly towards the visitors. Its outcome distribution makes a Senegal win the clear central possibility, while the projected goals and scorelines sketch out a match in which Ethiopia may have a difficult task finding the net.
What the model expects
The model's outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Senegal win (72.5%), then a draw (18.4%), then an Ethiopia win (9.2%). These probabilities are estimates. Its expected goals are 0.5 for Ethiopia and 2.2 for Senegal, a projection that gives Senegal the larger share of the attacking output. That gap is reflected in the likeliest scorelines: 0-1 (15.8%), 0-2 (15.4%) and 0-3 (10.9%). Each has Ethiopia scoreless, with the visitors registering the goals in the forecast. The model's lean is Senegal to win.
The model gives over 2.5 goals at 50.1% and under 2.5 goals at 49.9%, leaving its outlook on the total goals finely balanced. Its both-teams-to-score figures point more clearly in another direction: 35.6% for both sides to score and 64.4% for at least one side to fail to score. That latter measure does not mean a goalless draw; it includes any outcome in which either team does not score. Taken together, the model's expected-goals and scoreline projections make Senegal's attack the feature to watch, while the distribution for the total offers no comparable separation between the two possibilities.