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Match analysis · UEFA Nations League

Research workspace

Slovakia 2-1 Kazakhstan: Match Analysis & Model Review

Slovakia 2-1 Kazakhstan in the UEFA Nations League, Tuesday, September 29: the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Slovakia beat Kazakhstan 2-1 in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday, September 29, after the sides reached the interval level at 1-1. The result was a 2-1 win for Slovakia over Kazakhstan, with the match’s shot and possession figures pointing to a substantial share of the attacking activity for Slovakia.

The numbers

Slovakia had 13 shots, with 5 on target; Kazakhstan recorded 3 attempts and 2 on target. The gap in attempts was reflected in the final score, though Kazakhstan still found the net. The shots on target show that both sides tested the opposition goalkeeper, while the attempts overall underline how much more often Slovakia took a shot.

Possession was 75% for Slovakia and 25% for Kazakhstan. The corner count also favoured Slovakia: 6, against 1 for Kazakhstan. Together, those figures show Slovakia had more of the ball and more corners, as well as the greater volume of shots. They describe a match in which Kazakhstan had fewer opportunities by those measures but still scored.

The teams scored three goals in total: Slovakia accounted for two goals and Kazakhstan for one goal. At the break, the score was 1-1; by full time, Slovakia had secured the win. The goalkeepers made 1 and 4 saves for Slovakia and Kazakhstan respectively, giving another view of the work created by the opposing attacks. The figures do not change the central contrast: Slovakia produced more attempts, while both sides registered goals.

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Standout performers

L. Sauer was Slovakia’s best-rated player, earning 8.0 and scoring 1 goal. The rating and goal make L. Sauer a clear focal point among Slovakia’s individual contributions in a winning performance.

For Kazakhstan, R. Karimov earned the team’s best rating, 8.1, and scored 1 goal. That gives Kazakhstan a goal from its standout performer despite the defeat. Both sides’ top-rated players therefore contributed on the scoresheet, while the result went to Slovakia.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, Goalorithm’s model gave Slovakia a win probability of 70.8%, a draw probability of 19.2% and a Kazakhstan win probability of 10%. These are estimates. Its most likely outcome was Slovakia to win; the model's most likely outcome happened.

The result matched the model’s stated pre-match call. The forecast included possibilities beyond a Slovakia win, but the model identified that outcome as its most likely. The final score settled the match after an even score at the interval, and the model’s call was borne out by the result.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

Slovakia vs Kazakhstan

Tue, Sep 29 · 2:45 PM ET · Kosicka futbalova arena

Full time

2–1

Half-time 1–1

The model before the game

Slovakia
70.8%
Draw
19.2%
Kazakhstan
10%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

SlovakiaStatisticKazakhstan
1saves4
13shots3
6corners1
75%possession25%
5shots on target2
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