Published September 27, 2026 · Updated September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Slovakia 2–1 Kazakhstan. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Slovakia host Kazakhstan in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday, September 29 at 2:45 p.m. ET. The model makes Slovakia the likeliest winner, with its expected-goals figures and leading scorelines pointing to a forecast in which Kazakhstan may be kept off the scoresheet. The sides arrive with different group positions: Slovakia sit 1st in League C - Group C, while Kazakhstan sit 2nd in League C - Group C.
What the model expects
The model’s outcomes from likeliest down are a Slovakia win (71.4%), then a draw (19%), then a Kazakhstan win (9.5%). These are estimates, and the model’s lean is Slovakia to win. Its result forecast leaves room for a draw or an away win, but places a Slovakia victory first. The bookmakers’ outcomes from likeliest down are a Slovakia win (74.5%), then a draw (17.1%), then a Kazakhstan win (8.3%); the model gives a Slovakia win 71.4%, below the bookmakers' 74.5%.
For the goals market, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 47.8% and under 2.5 goals at 52.2%. Its expected goals are Slovakia 2.1 and Kazakhstan 0.5, a projection that places more of the scoring expectation with Slovakia. The model gives both teams scoring 33.9%; it gives at least one side failing to score 66.1%. That latter figure covers outcomes where one or both teams do not score, rather than only a goalless draw.