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Match analysis · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Research workspace

Burundi 2-2 Algeria: Match Analysis & Model Review

Burundi 2-2 Algeria in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification, Tuesday, September 29: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Burundi and Algeria finished 2-2 in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Tuesday, September 29, with the half-time score at 2-1. Burundi struck early and established a two-goal lead at 2-0, but Algeria scored before the break and levelled after it to secure a 2-2 draw.

The scoreline followed a match in which only Burundi ever led; the score was levelled once. Burundi’s goals came in the opening stages, while Algeria’s reply arrived across the two halves. The early advantage did not hold through the second half: Algeria brought the scores level, and the final score remained unchanged after that equaliser. The match was played at Stade Intwari.

How it unfolded

An own goal by Fares Chaibi gave Burundi the lead in the 5th minute, making it 1-0. J. Girumugisha added Burundi’s next goal in the 12th minute to make it 2-0, the score at which Burundi held a two-goal lead.

Mohamed Belloumi pulled Algeria back into the match in the 30th minute, making it 2-1 before half-time. After the interval, Adil Boulbina completed Algeria’s recovery in the 63rd minute, setting the score at 2-2. That was the final change to the scoreline. The sequence ran from Burundi’s early lead to Algeria’s equaliser, with the break arriving after Algeria had reduced the deficit.

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The numbers

Burundi recorded 13 shots and 3 on target; Algeria recorded 11 shots and 3 on target. Possession was 30% for Burundi and 70% for Algeria. The corner counts were 6 and 2, while the saves were 1 and 2.

The match produced four goals, split as two goals for Burundi and two goals for Algeria. The possession figures show Algeria had the greater share of the ball, while the shots on target were level. Burundi’s early goals put it in front; Algeria’s goals brought the score back to parity. Neither side added another goal after the equaliser.

Standout performers

J. Girumugisha was Burundi’s best-rated player, receiving 7.8 and contributing 1 goal. Algeria’s best-rated player was M. Belloumi, also rated 7.8, with 1 goal. Both players scored during the match: J. Girumugisha was part of Burundi’s early scoring, while M. Belloumi scored Algeria’s goal before half-time.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, the model gave Burundi a win probability of 3%, a draw probability of 9% and an Algeria win probability of 88%. These probabilities are estimates. The model’s most likely outcome was Algeria to win, while it assigned the actual result a probability of 9%.

The result went against the model's most likely outcome. The model had Algeria to win, but the match ended level after Burundi’s early advantage and Algeria’s second-half equaliser. Its pre-match call therefore did not match the outcome on the pitch.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Burundi vs Algeria

Tue, Sep 29 · 9:00 AM ET · Stade Intwari

Full time

2–2

Half-time 2–1

  • 5'Fares Chaibi (own goal)1–0
  • 12'J. Girumugisha2–0
  • 30'Mohamed Belloumi2–1
  • 63'Adil Boulbina2–2

The model before the game

Burundi
3%
Draw
9%
Algeria
88%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

BurundiStatisticAlgeria
1saves2
13shots11
6corners2
30%possession70%
3shots on target3
Open the Match Center

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