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Match analysis · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

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Uganda 1-0 Libya: Match Analysis & Model Review

Uganda 1-0 Libya in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification, Tuesday, September 29: how the goal came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

A 1-0 win for Uganda over Libya in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Tuesday, September 29, with Arnold Vula Lamb Luth scoring for Uganda in the 45th minute (+2). The goal made it 1-0, and Uganda reached half-time with that advantage intact. The match ended with the same scoreline, as only Uganda ever led.

The goal was the match’s only one: Uganda finished with one goal, Libya with no goals, and the total was one goal. The result was settled by the finish before the interval, with no later goal changing the outcome.

How it unfolded

Arnold Vula Lamb Luth scored for Uganda in the 45th minute (+2), making it 1-0. That was the breakthrough and the only goal of the match. The half-time score was 1-0.

After the interval, the lead remained with Uganda. Only Uganda ever led; the final score was 1-0, with Libya unable to add a goal.

The numbers

The shot count was 4 for Uganda and 2 for Libya. Shots on target were 1 and 2, respectively. Possession was recorded at 54% for Uganda and 46% for Libya. The figures give a statistical account of a match decided by a single goal, without changing the basic detail of how the score was made.

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Uganda had 2 corners and Libya had 0. The saves totals were 2 for Uganda and 0 for Libya. Those records sit alongside the final outcome: Uganda scored and Libya did not.

Standout performers

A. Vula was Uganda's best-rated player, with a rating of 7.7 and 1 goal. The scorer’s goal was the decisive contribution on the scoresheet; the rating and goal record mark his place among the match’s standout details.

For Libya, Abdelaziz Ali was the best-rated player, with a rating of 7.0.

How the model called it

Goalorithm’s pre-match probabilities are estimates. The model gave Uganda a win probability of 33.9%, a draw probability of 27.1% and a Libya win probability of 39.1%. Its most likely outcome was Libya to win.

The model gave the actual result 33.9%; the result went against the model's most likely outcome. The final score was the model's 1st-likeliest score. The match therefore finished with the outcome described by the result, rather than the model’s pre-match most likely outcome.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Uganda vs Libya

Tue, Sep 29 · 12:00 PM ET · Hoima City Stadium

Full time

1–0

Half-time 1–0

  • 45'+2Arnold Vula Lamb Luth1–0

The model before the game

Uganda
33.9%
Draw
27.1%
Libya
39.1%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

UgandaStatisticLibya
2saves0
4shots2
2corners0
54%possession46%
1shots on target2
Open the Match Center

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