Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Uganda 1–0 Libya. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Uganda host Libya in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Tuesday, September 29 at 12:00 p.m. ET, with the model's likeliest result a Uganda win. The fixture is at Hoima City Stadium, Hoima, and Goalorithm's projections point to a restrained scoring outlook as well as a model preference for Uganda.
What the model expects
The model's outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Uganda win (48%), then a draw (30.2%), then a Libya win (21.7%). These probabilities are estimates. Its goals lean is under 2.5 goals, with under 2.5 goals at 69.6% and over 2.5 goals at 30.4%. The broad picture is a match in which the model gives the lower-scoring outcomes more weight: that is a projection, not a guarantee of how the game will unfold.
Expected goals are 1.3 for Uganda and 0.6 for Libya. The model's projected scoring contribution is therefore greater for Uganda, while its estimate for Libya is more limited. That difference sits alongside the outcome ordering, which puts a Uganda win first. It does not rule out a draw or a Libya win; both remain part of the model's forecast.
The model expects both teams to score in 33.8% of its projections, while 66.2% have at least one side failing to score. The latter figure includes matches in which one team scores and the other does not, as well as a goalless draw; it is not a probability for a draw alone. That distinction matters when reading the scoring outlook: the model can lean towards fewer goals without predicting that neither side will find the net.