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GOALORITHM / FTB

Match analysis · Friendlies

Research workspace

Australia 2-4 Brazil: Match Analysis & Model Review

Australia 2-4 Brazil in a friendly, Tuesday, September 29: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

A 4-2 win for Brazil over Australia in a friendly on Tuesday, September 29, after a first half in which Australia recovered from an early setback, went in front and were pegged back before the break. The teams were level at half-time, with 2-2 on the scoreboard, but Brazil scored twice after the restart to settle the contest.

The final score was 2-4. Australia scored two goals, while Brazil scored four goals; there were six goals in all. Brazil finished with a two-goal lead at 2-4.

How it unfolded

Vanderson put Brazil ahead in the 3rd minute, making it 0-1. A. Circati levelled for Australia in the 28th minute, and C. Metcalfe moved Australia in front in the 33rd minute, making it 2-1.

Raphinha converted a penalty for Brazil in the 45th minute to make it 2-2. The sides went into the interval level. After the break, Bruno Guimaraes restored Brazil's lead in the 69th minute; Vinicius Junior then scored from the penalty spot in the 80th minute to make it 2-4. Both sides led at some point; the lead changed hands twice; the score was levelled twice.

The numbers

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Matches
Predictions
My Picks

Brazil had 18 shots, with 8 on target. Australia had 8 shots and 2 on target. The figures show a clear difference in attempts on target alongside the final score, while possession was 49% for Australia and 51% for Brazil.

The corner counts were 4 for Australia and 6 for Brazil. Australia made 4 saves; Brazil made 0. The shot and save figures give further context to a match that was level at the interval but ended with Brazil holding the stated advantage.

Standout performers

Alessandro Circati was Australia's best-rated player, with a rating of 7.2 and 1 goal and 1 assist. His goal brought Australia level after the opening strike, and the assist was also part of his contribution.

Vanderson led Brazil's ratings, with 7.9 and 1 goal. Vanderson's goal put Brazil in front and opened the scoring.

How the model called it

Goalorithm's pre-match probabilities are estimates. The model gave Australia a win probability of 26.5%, a draw 21.8%, and a Brazil win 51.7%. Its most likely outcome was Brazil to win, assigned 51.7%; the model's most likely outcome happened.

The match followed that pre-match call, though the lead changed hands before the interval and the teams were level at half-time. Brazil then scored twice after the break, turning the tied score into the final result. The closing scoreline reflected the model's selected outcome, after a contest that had shifted between the sides before the second-half goals decided it.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Friendlies

Australia vs Brazil

Tue, Sep 29 · 6:00 AM ET · Accor Stadium

Full time

2–4

Half-time 2–2

  • 3'Vanderson0–1
  • 28'A. Circati1–1
  • 33'C. Metcalfe2–1
  • 45'Raphinha (penalty)2–2
  • 69'Bruno Guimaraes2–3
  • 80'Vinicius Junior (penalty)2–4

The model before the game

Australia
26.5%
Draw
21.8%
Brazil
51.7%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

AustraliaStatisticBrazil
4saves0
8shots18
4corners6
49%possession51%
2shots on target8
Open the Match Center

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