Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Australia 2–4 Brazil. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Australia host Brazil in a friendly on Tuesday, September 29 at 6:00 a.m. ET, with a recent meeting between the sides giving this rematch an immediate point of reference. That encounter finished level, and the model expects a contest in which Brazil has the likeliest winning outcome. The match is at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane.
The shared result is a clear starting point, but the available form gives the fixture more context: Australia arrive unbeaten in their last 2, while Brazil are unbeaten in their last 4. The model's outlook points towards Brazil, while its score forecasts leave room for a close game.
What the model expects
The model's outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Brazil win (51.1%), then an Australia win (26.8%), then a draw (22.1%). These probabilities are estimates. The model's likeliest result is a Brazil win. Its expected-goals figures are Australia 1 and Brazil 1.6, setting out the scoring expectation behind that assessment.
The leading scorelines are 1-1 (11.4%), 0-0 (11.3%) and 0-1 (11.2%). The draw appears among those leading exact-score forecasts, alongside outcomes in which Brazil scores and Australia does not. That spread captures both the model's preference for an away win and the possibility of a tight match.
For total goals, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 48.2% and under 2.5 goals at 51.8%. It puts both teams scoring at 50.2%; the chance that at least one side fails to score is 49.8%. Those are separate views of the game: one concerns whether each team scores, the other the overall goals total.