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Match analysis · UEFA Nations League

Research workspace

Spain 4-1 Croatia: Match Analysis & Model Review

Spain 4-1 Croatia in the UEFA Nations League, Tuesday, September 29: the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Spain beat Croatia 4-1 in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday, September 29, leading 2-1 at the break before completing a 4-1 win for Spain over Croatia. The scoreline and match figures point to a contest in which Spain produced the greater attacking volume and controlled more of the ball, while Croatia still found the net.

The numbers

Spain had 62% possession against Croatia's 38%, giving the match a clear tilt in ball control. That advantage was accompanied by Spain taking 11 shots to Croatia's 3. The difference in attempts on target was also substantial: Spain put 5 on target, while Croatia managed 1. Together, those figures describe a game in which Spain generated more opportunities to test the opposing goalkeeper, rather than relying solely on possession without an attacking return.

The corner count followed the same broad pattern, with Spain earning 5 and Croatia earning 1. The saves figures were 0 for Spain and 2 for Croatia. Across the match, Spain scored four goals and Croatia scored one goal, making five goals overall. The final margin reflected the difference in the sides' attacking output, while the half-time score shows that the contest was not yet settled at the interval.

Standout performers

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Spain's highest-rated player was Lamine Yamal, who received 9.5 after contributing 2 goals and 1 assist. The rating and direct involvement in goals make Lamine Yamal the standout performer for Spain in the available individual figures.

For Croatia, D. Beljo was the best-rated player, receiving 7.5 and recording 1 goal. That contribution gave Croatia a goalscorer of its own on a night when the team had fewer shots and less possession. The two player lines capture distinct contributions: Lamine Yamal was involved in multiple goals, while D. Beljo supplied Croatia's scoring return.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, Goalorithm's model gave Spain a win probability of 71.1%, a draw probability of 18.1% and a Croatia win probability of 10.8%. These probabilities are estimates. The model's most likely outcome was Spain to win, and it assigned the actual result a probability of 71.1%; the model's most likely outcome happened.

The outcome therefore matched the model's pre-match selection. The match figures provide a clear account of how Spain secured the result: more possession, a higher shot count and more attempts on target accompanied the win. The model's call was about the outcome rather than a guarantee of the precise scoreline; its stated probability for the result sets out how likely it considered that outcome before play began.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

Spain vs Croatia

Tue, Sep 29 · 2:45 PM ET · Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán

Full time

4–1

Half-time 2–1

The model before the game

Spain
71.1%
Draw
18.1%
Croatia
10.8%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

SpainStatisticCroatia
0saves2
11shots3
5corners1
62%possession38%
5shots on target1
Open the Match Center

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