Published September 27, 2026 · Updated September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Spain 4–1 Croatia. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Spain host Croatia in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday, September 29 at 2:45 p.m. ET, with the model’s clearest signal pointing toward a home win. The sides have matching points totals, while Spain sit above Croatia on the same points; the question for this meeting is whether the model’s expected scoring balance is reflected in the result. The game is at Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, Seville.
What the model expects
The model’s outcome order is a Spain win (75.2%), then a draw (14.8%), then a Croatia win (9.9%). These probabilities are estimates. Its likeliest result is a Spain win, and its lean is Spain to win. The projected goals figures are 2.4 for Spain and 0.8 for Croatia. The model assigns over 2.5 goals at 61.8% and under 2.5 goals at 38.2% to the total-goals possibilities. It gives a 48% probability that both teams score, and a 52% probability that at least one side fails to score.
The leading exact-score projections are 2-0 at 12.2%, 1-0 at 10.3% and 3-0 at 9.6%. Each has Spain scoring more than Croatia, in line with the model’s broader expectation. The draw and a Croatia win remain part of the model’s outlook alongside its likeliest result. The figures set out the model’s view of the match rather than a certainty about how it will unfold.