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GOALORITHM / FTB

Match analysis · Friendlies

Research workspace

USA 4-2 Chile: Match Analysis & Model Review

USA 4-2 Chile in a friendly, Tuesday, September 29: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

USA beat Chile in a friendly on Tuesday, September 29, with a 4-2 win for USA over Chile and a final score of 4-2. The sides were level at half-time, and four second-half goals settled a match in which the lead changed hands twice and the score was levelled twice.

The shot count was 3 for USA and 8 for Chile, while possession stood at 66% and 34%, respectively. USA finished with four goals; Chile scored two goals.

How it unfolded

S. Berhalter put USA ahead in the 37th minute, making it 1-0. D. Ulloa replied for Chile in the 45th minute (+1), leaving the sides level at 1-1 at the break.

M. Gutierrez moved Chile in front in the 49th minute. J. Hall restored parity for USA in the 51st minute, then C. Richards put USA ahead in the 72nd minute. M. Albert scored the final goal in the 90th minute (+3), taking the score to 4-2.

Both sides led at some point; the lead changed hands twice; the score was levelled twice. The sequence moved from a USA lead to a Chile lead, then back to USA. USA held a two-goal lead at 4-2 by the final whistle.

The numbers

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Matches
Predictions
My Picks

Possession was 66% for USA and 34% for Chile. Shots on target finished at 2 for USA and 4 for Chile. The corner count was 0 for USA and 5 for Chile; the saves figures were 4 and 1, respectively.

There were six goals in all. The first half ended level, and after Chile took the lead early in the second half, USA equalised before moving ahead. The final goal completed the scoring and left USA with the win.

How the model called it

The pre-match probabilities are estimates. Goalorithm gave USA a win probability of 30.3%, a draw probability of 22.2%, and a Chile win probability of 47.6%. Its most likely outcome was Chile to win, and it gave the actual result a probability of 30.3%.

The result went against the model's most likely outcome. The match finished with USA ahead, despite the model’s pre-match call of Chile to win.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Friendlies

USA vs Chile

Tue, Sep 29 · 8:00 PM ET · Snapdragon Stadium

Full time

4–2

Half-time 1–1

  • 37'S. Berhalter1–0
  • 45'+1D. Ulloa1–1
  • 49'M. Gutierrez1–2
  • 51'J. Hall2–2
  • 72'C. Richards3–2
  • 90'+3M. Albert4–2

The model before the game

USA
30.3%
Draw
22.2%
Chile
47.6%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

USAStatisticChile
4saves1
3shots8
0corners5
66%possession34%
2shots on target4
Open the Match Center

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