Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: USA 4–2 Chile. Read the match analysis →
Preview
USA host Chile in a friendly on Tuesday, September 29 at 8:00 p.m. ET, with Goalorithm’s model pointing to the visitors as the likeliest winners. The forecast also leans toward goals, setting up a game in which both sides have reason to look for a way through.
What the model expects
The model’s likeliest result is a Chile win. Its ordering is a Chile win (46.4%), then a USA win (31.4%), then a draw (22.2%). These probabilities are estimates, not certainties, but they give Chile the clearest route to a positive result in the forecast.
The goals projection is over 2.5 goals at 70.6%, against under 2.5 goals at 29.4%. Both teams score in 68.6% of the model’s outcomes, while at least one side fails to score in 31.4%. Expected goals stand at USA 1.5 and Chile 2.1, a profile that gives the visitors more attacking output while still leaving room for the hosts to contribute.
The leading exact-score possibilities are 1-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%) and 0-2 (6.3%). The spread across those outcomes underlines that the model does not reduce the match to one certain script.