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GOALORITHM / FTB

Match analysis · Friendlies

Research workspace

Mexico 1-1 Peru: Match Analysis & Model Review

Mexico 1-1 Peru in a friendly, Tuesday, September 29: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Mexico and Peru finished 1-1 in a friendly on Tuesday, September 29, with a 1-1 draw. J. Velez gave Peru the lead before the break, and Mexico equalised after half-time through V. Guzman. Neither side scored again.

The half-time score was 0-1. Only Peru ever led; the score was levelled once. The match therefore finished level after Mexico had restored parity early in the second half. At Sports Illustrated Stadium, the sides shared the goals, with Mexico scoring one goal and Peru scoring one goal.

How it unfolded

J. Velez put Peru in front in the 26th minute, making the score 0-1. That advantage held through to half-time, when the score was 0-1.

V. Guzman equalised for Mexico in the 49th minute, bringing the score to 1-1. Only Peru ever led; the score was levelled once. The goal brought the sides level, and the remaining play produced no further change to the score.

The numbers

Mexico had 67% possession and Peru had 33%. The shot totals were 4 for Mexico and 2 for Peru; each side recorded 1 shot on target. The possession share belonged to Mexico, while the shot totals were close between the teams.

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The corner count was 3 for Mexico and 2 for Peru. Mexico made 0 saves, while Peru made 2. The match produced two goals in all.

Standout performers

Orbelín Pineda was Mexico's best-rated player, with a rating of 7.0. For Peru, Jairo Vélez earned the best rating at 7.5, with 1 goal on the line.

Jairo Vélez also scored Peru's goal, the opener in the 26th minute. The ratings identify Orbelín Pineda as the standout for Mexico and Jairo Vélez for Peru, with both players featuring in a match that ended level.

How the model called it

Before kickoff, the model gave Mexico a win probability of 59.8%, a draw 24.4%, and a Peru win 15.8%. Its most likely outcome was Mexico to win; it assigned the actual draw 24.4%.

That means the result went against the model's most likely outcome. The model's stated preference was for Mexico to win, while the match finished a 1-1 draw.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Friendlies

Mexico vs Peru

Tue, Sep 29 · 9:00 PM ET · Sports Illustrated Stadium

Full time

1–1

Half-time 0–1

  • 26'J. Velez0–1
  • 49'V. Guzman1–1

The model before the game

Mexico
59.8%
Draw
24.4%
Peru
15.8%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

MexicoStatisticPeru
0saves2
4shots2
3corners2
67%possession33%
1shots on target1
Open the Match Center

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