Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Mexico 1–1 Peru. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Mexico host Peru in a friendly on Tuesday, September 29 at 9:00 p.m. ET. Goalorithm's model points to a Mexico win, with projected goals of 1.8 for Mexico and 0.6 for Peru.
The fixture brings together Mexico, who are unbeaten in their last 5, and Peru, who are on 2 defeats in a row. Mexico's latest result was a 1-1 home draw with Colombia on September 26; Peru's was a 4-1 away defeat to USA on September 26. The model's estimates put a Mexico win at the centre of its outlook, while its goal and score projections leave room for a close match.
What the model expects
These are estimates. The model's outcomes from likeliest down are a Mexico win (59.4%), then a draw (24.4%), then a Peru win (16.2%). Its lean is Mexico to win. The central expectation is that Mexico can turn its projected scoring into a win; a draw and a Peru win are also part of the outlook.
For total goals, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 45.6% and under 2.5 goals at 54.4%. It assigns 40.3% to both teams scoring and 59.7% to at least one side failing to score. The figures allow for either side to be held scoreless, rather than requiring both teams to find the net.
The leading exact-score possibilities are 1-0 (15.6%), 2-0 (13.7%) and 0-0 (13.1%). The listed scores include 1-0 and 2-0, as well as 0-0. They fit an outlook built around Mexico scoring, while leaving a goalless draw in the picture.