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Match analysis · UEFA Nations League

Research workspace

Bulgaria 0-0 Estonia: Match Analysis & Model Review

Bulgaria 0-0 Estonia in the UEFA Nations League, Tuesday, September 29: the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Bulgaria and Estonia shared a goalless 0-0 draw in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday, September 29, with the teams level at half-time. Bulgaria had more of the ball and took more shots, but both sides managed the same number of efforts on target.

The figures show a clear difference in total attempts, without a corresponding difference in shots on target. Bulgaria also won more corners, but neither side scored. The match ended without a goal to separate the teams.

How it unfolded

The teams reached the interval at 0-0. Neither scored after the break, and the final score remained 0-0.

The numbers

Bulgaria attempted 12 shots, compared with 3 for Estonia. The sides each recorded 1 shot on target, so the difference in total attempts did not carry through to that measure.

Possession was 54% for Bulgaria and 46% for Estonia. The corner count was 7 for Bulgaria and 4 for Estonia. The save figures were 0 for Bulgaria and 1 for Estonia. These measures describe a match in which Bulgaria had the higher totals for shots, possession and corners, while the score stayed level.

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Standout performers

Bulgaria's best-rated player was S. Velkov, with a rating of 7.1. For Estonia, K. Hein received the highest rating, 7.2. Those ratings mark the leading individual performances recorded for each team, in a match where neither side found a goal.

How the model called it

Before kickoff, Goalorithm's model gave Bulgaria a 60.2% chance of winning, a draw 24.5% chance, and Estonia a 15.3% chance. These are estimates. The model's most likely outcome was Bulgaria to win; it gave the actual result 24.5%, and the result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The final score was the model's 1st-likeliest score. The model had identified a Bulgaria win as its most likely outcome, but the match finished level. The result and the pre-match probabilities show the gap between the model's leading outcome and what happened on the pitch.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

Bulgaria vs Estonia

Tue, Sep 29 · 2:45 PM ET · Hristo Botev Stadium

Full time

0–0

Half-time 0–0

The model before the game

Bulgaria
60.2%
Draw
24.5%
Estonia
15.3%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

BulgariaStatisticEstonia
0saves1
12shots3
7corners4
54%possession46%
1shots on target1
Open the Match Center

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