Published September 27, 2026 · Updated September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Bulgaria 0–0 Estonia. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Bulgaria host Estonia in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday, September 29 at 2:45 p.m. ET, with the fixture set for Hristo Botev Stadium, Plovdiv. Estonia sit above Bulgaria, while the model’s likeliest result is a Bulgaria win. The table picture and the model’s forecast point in different directions, giving the match a clear storyline before kick-off.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcomes from likeliest down are a Bulgaria win (51.2%), then a draw (27%), then an Estonia win (21.7%). Its leading exact-score forecasts are 0-0 (12.2%), 1-1 (12%) and 1-0 (10.3%), a spread of possibilities that includes a level game as well as home wins.
For goals, the model gives under 2.5 goals at 54.4% and over 2.5 goals at 45.6%. It assigns 50.5% to both teams scoring and 49.5% to at least one side failing to score. The latter is not a prediction of a goalless draw: a team can fail to score in a match that still has goals.
Expected goals are 1.4 for Bulgaria and 1.1 for Estonia. Those projections give the home side the larger expected contribution, but the score forecasts keep the picture open rather than pointing to a single decisive margin.
The bookmakers’ margin-removed probabilities imply a Bulgaria win (57.1%), then a draw (26.6%), then an Estonia win (16.3%). The comparison is clear: the model gives a Bulgaria win 51.2%, below the bookmakers' 57.1%.