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Match analysis · CONCACAF Nations League

Research workspace

Belize 0-1 St. Vincent / Grenadines: Match Analysis & Model Review

Belize 0-1 St. Vincent / Grenadines in the CONCACAF Nations League, Tuesday, September 29: how the goal came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 30, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Belize lost 0-1 to St. Vincent / Grenadines in the CONCACAF Nations League on Tuesday, September 29, as Andrew Johnson’s early strike settled a match with little recorded attacking output. The half-time score was 0-1, and St. Vincent / Grenadines preserved that lead until the final whistle. A 1-0 win for St. Vincent / Grenadines over Belize.

St. Vincent / Grenadines had the greater share of possession, but the recorded shots show how limited the attacking output was for both sides. Belize did not register a shot, while St. Vincent / Grenadines had one; that attempt was on target and produced the goal. The possession figures therefore describe control of the ball, not a stream of chances or a high-scoring contest. The match was played at FFB Stadium. The outcome was decided by the goal rather than by a late change in the lead: only St. Vincent / Grenadines ever led.

For Belize, the figures offer little evidence of a sustained threat in front of goal. There were no recorded shots, shots on target or corners, while St. Vincent / Grenadines registered an attempt, a shot on target and corners. Those totals frame a narrow result: St. Vincent / Grenadines found a way to make its limited recorded attacking output count, and Belize could not reply on the scoresheet.

How it unfolded

Andrew Johnson scored for St. Vincent / Grenadines in the 10th minute, making it 0-1. The goal put St. Vincent / Grenadines in front before the interval, with 0-1 the score at half-time. No further goal is recorded, leaving St. Vincent / Grenadines with the lead at the end. Only St. Vincent / Grenadines ever led.

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The numbers

The shot count was 0 for Belize and 1 for St. Vincent / Grenadines; the shots-on-target figures were 0 and 1 respectively. Possession stood at 32% for Belize and 68% for St. Vincent / Grenadines. The figures show St. Vincent / Grenadines had more of the ball, but that advantage did not translate into a large volume of recorded attempts.

Corners were 0 for Belize and 2 for St. Vincent / Grenadines. The saves figures were 1 for Belize and 0 for St. Vincent / Grenadines. The goals record was no goals for Belize and one goal for St. Vincent / Grenadines, with one goal in all. The only recorded shot on target was the goal, leaving the match decided by the moment St. Vincent / Grenadines created rather than by a succession of chances.

How the model called it

Before kickoff, Goalorithm's probabilities were estimates. The model gave Belize a 46.3% chance of winning, put the draw at 25.1% and gave St. Vincent / Grenadines a 28.5% chance. Its most likely outcome was Belize to win, so the eventual result did not follow the model's preferred outcome.

The model gave the actual result 28.5%; the result went against the model's most likely outcome. The final score 0-1 was the model's 1st-likeliest score. The model's call and the match result point in different directions, while the recorded match figures explain how St. Vincent / Grenadines secured the win: its goal came from the only shot on target, and Belize recorded no attempt.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

CONCACAF Nations League

Belize vs St. Vincent / Grenadines

Tue, Sep 29 · 10:00 PM ET · FFB Stadium

Full time

0–1

Half-time 0–1

  • 10'Andrew Johnson0–1

The model before the game

Belize
46.3%
Draw
25.2%
St. Vincent / Grenadines
28.5%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

BelizeStatisticSt. Vincent / Grenadines
1saves0
0shots1
0corners2
32%possession68%
0shots on target1
Open the Match Center

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