Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Belize 0–1 St. Vincent / Grenadines. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Belize host St. Vincent / Grenadines in the CONCACAF Nations League on Tuesday, September 29, with kick-off at 10:00 p.m. ET. The model’s forecast puts a Belize win first among the outcomes, but its expected-goals figures are level and its goal outlook leans under 2.5 goals at 55%.
The match is at FFB Stadium, Belmopan. The model gives the sides the same expected-goals figure, while its likeliest exact score is a win for St. Vincent / Grenadines. A draw and a score with a goal for each team also feature among the leading possibilities, leaving the result forecast open across several scorelines.
What the model expects
The model’s likeliest result is a Belize win, at 36.4%. Its outcomes from likeliest down are a Belize win (36.4%), then a St. Vincent / Grenadines win (36%), then a draw (27.6%). These figures are estimates. The forecast ranks a Belize win first, with an away win and a draw also represented in its result probabilities.
For goals, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 45% and under 2.5 goals at 55%, with its lean on under 2.5 goals. It projects Belize at 1.2 expected goals and St. Vincent / Grenadines at 1.2. The expected-goals figures are identical, while the total-goals outlook leans under the listed threshold. Those are separate parts of the model’s forecast: the expected goals describe each team’s projected output, and the over-under figures describe the total-goals outlook.