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Match analysis · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

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Zambia 2-0 Togo: Match Analysis & Model Review

Zambia 2-0 Togo in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification, Tuesday, September 29: the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

A 2-0 win for Zambia over Togo in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Tuesday, September 29, with Zambia ahead 1-0 at half-time. Togo had more possession, but the match ended with two goals for Zambia and no goals for Togo. The shot totals were 7 for Zambia and 2 for Togo, while the on-target figures were 2 and 0.

The result gives Zambia the points, despite Togo having the greater share of the ball. The recorded figures show that possession did not bring Togo a shot on target, while Zambia scored twice. The final score, the half-time score and the shooting figures together describe a match in which Zambia converted its attacking output into the decisive result.

How it unfolded

Zambia led 1-0 at the interval and completed the match with 2-0. The goal totals were two goals for Zambia and no goals for Togo, making two goals overall.

The numbers

Zambia had 7 shots, including 2 on target. Togo recorded 2 shots, with 0 on target. The figures show Zambia getting attempts on target and Togo finishing without one; the final score reflects the difference in goals, rather than possession alone.

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Possession was 42% for Zambia and 58% for Togo. The corner totals were 1 for Zambia and 2 for Togo. The saves figures were 0 for Zambia and 1 for Togo. These measures add context to the scoreline: the possession share belonged more to Togo, while Zambia left with the win.

Standout performers

A. Kangwanda was Zambia's best-rated player, with a rating of 8.1 and 1 goal. K. Boma's rating of 6.7 made him Togo's best-rated player. Those ratings mark the leading individual performances recorded for each side, with A. Kangwanda's goal also part of Zambia's scoring contribution.

How the model called it

Goalorithm's pre-match probabilities are estimates. The model gave Zambia a win probability of 34.9%, a draw probability of 22.8% and Togo a win probability of 42.3%. Its most likely outcome was Togo to win, but it assigned the actual result a probability of 34.9%; the result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The model's call therefore favoured Togo, while the match finished as a 2-0 win for Zambia over Togo. The probabilities and the result show the gap between the model's pre-match assessment and what happened on the pitch.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Zambia vs Togo

Tue, Sep 29 · 12:00 PM ET · Levy Mwanawasa Stadium

Full time

2–0

Half-time 1–0

The model before the game

Zambia
34.9%
Draw
22.8%
Togo
42.3%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

ZambiaStatisticTogo
0saves1
7shots2
1corners2
42%possession58%
2shots on target0
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