Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Zambia 2–0 Togo. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Zambia host Togo in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Tuesday, September 29 at 12:00 p.m. ET. Goalorithm’s model makes a Zambia win the likeliest outcome, but the draw and a Togo win remain substantial parts of its forecast. Its clearest read on the match is a contest where goals may be scarce rather than a high-scoring exchange.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model's outcomes from likeliest down are a Zambia win (42.3%), then a draw (30.7%), then a Togo win (27%). That ordering gives Zambia the leading outcome, while leaving room for either a draw or a win for Togo; it is not a forecast of a certain result. The gap between the listed outcomes is narrow enough for the match to turn on whether Zambia can convert its edge into a goal, or whether Togo can keep the contest level.
The model's lean is under 2.5 goals. It assigns under 2.5 goals at 69.6% and over 2.5 goals at 30.4%, a profile that points away from an open, high-scoring game. Expected goals are 1.2 for Zambia and 0.8 for Togo. Those estimates indicate a modest scoring expectation for both sides, with the larger share assigned to Zambia; the forecast does not imply that either side is certain to score.
The most likely score is 1-0 (16.6%), followed by 0-0 (16.2%) and 1-1 (10.4%). The first two possibilities both have at least one side shut out, while the third has both teams scoring. That range captures the model's central tension: a narrow Zambia win is its top scoreline, but a goalless draw is close behind, and a level score with goals is also among its leading scenarios.