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Match analysis · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

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Madagascar 1-1 Tanzania: Match Analysis & Model Review

Madagascar 1-1 Tanzania in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification, Tuesday, September 29: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Madagascar and Tanzania shared a 1-1 draw in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Tuesday, September 29, with the goals arriving either side of the interval. Tanzania went in ahead at 0-1, but Madagascar answered after the break and the match ended 1-1.

At Stade d'Honneur, both teams scored once. Only Tanzania ever led; the score was levelled once. The final score left the sides level, with neither adding to their tally after Madagascar’s equaliser. The goals came from Cyprian Kachwele and N. Fontaine: each finished with 1 goal and 1 goal respectively.

How it unfolded

Cyprian Kachwele opened the scoring for Tanzania in the 39th minute, making it 0-1. That gave Tanzania the lead at the interval, with Madagascar trailing 0-1.

Madagascar’s response came in the 50th minute, when Nicolas Paul Julien Fontaine scored to make it 1-1. The teams were level, and the score remained unchanged for the rest of the match. Tanzania scored first; Madagascar then restored parity.

The numbers

Possession was 62% for Madagascar and 38% for Tanzania. Each side recorded 3 shots, while Madagascar had 2 on target and Tanzania had 1. The match produced two goals, split between Madagascar with one goal and Tanzania with one goal.

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Matches
Predictions
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Madagascar recorded 2 corners and Tanzania recorded 0. The saves count was 0 for Madagascar and 1 for Tanzania. The figures show a level shot count alongside a difference in possession, while the goals tally finished even. Neither team added another goal after the score was levelled.

Standout performers

N. Fontaine was Madagascar’s best-rated player, receiving 7.6 and recording 1 goal. The goal brought Madagascar level and was its contribution to the scoring in the draw.

Cyprian Kachwele was Tanzania’s best-rated player, with 7.7 and 1 goal. The opening goal put Tanzania in front. Each side’s best-rated player scored, with their goals accounting for the match’s two strikes.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, Goalorithm’s model gave Madagascar a win probability of 38.5%, a draw probability of 31.3%, and a Tanzania win probability of 30.2%. These probabilities are estimates. The model’s most likely outcome was Madagascar to win; it gave the actual result a probability of 31.3%, and the result went against the model's most likely outcome.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Madagascar vs Tanzania

Tue, Sep 29 · 10:00 AM ET · Stade d'Honneur

Full time

1–1

Half-time 0–1

  • 39'Cyprian Kachwele0–1
  • 50'Nicolas Paul Julien Fontaine1–1

The model before the game

Madagascar
38.5%
Draw
31.3%
Tanzania
30.2%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

MadagascarStatisticTanzania
0saves1
3shots3
2corners0
62%possession38%
2shots on target1
Open the Match Center

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