Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Madagascar 1–1 Tanzania. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Madagascar host Tanzania in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Tuesday, September 29 at 9:00 a.m. ET, with the model pointing to a contest in which the outcome is finely poised and a lower-scoring game is the stronger goal expectation. The fixture’s central tension is clear in the projections: Madagascar is the model’s likeliest winner, but neither a draw nor a Tanzania win is far behind in its ordering.
What the model expects
Goalorithm’s outcome estimates are a Madagascar win (36.1%), then a Tanzania win (32.3%), then a draw (31.6%). They are estimates, rather than certainties, but they set out the model’s view plainly: Madagascar leads its outcome order, with the draw and a Tanzania win also prominent possibilities. The model’s likeliest result is a Madagascar win, while its expected-goals figures are 1 for Madagascar and 0.9 for Tanzania. Those projections leave room for either side to find a route to a result, without pointing to a large expected scoring return from either team.
The model’s goals lean is under 2.5 goals. It assigns under 2.5 goals at 68.6% and over 2.5 goals at 31.4%, while its assessment of both teams scoring is 39.1%; the chance that at least one side fails to score is 60.9%. The most likely scorelines are 0-0 (17.5%), 1-0 (14.3%) and 0-1 (13.4%). Together, those score projections show several plausible ways the match could finish, rather than a single scoreline dominating the model’s view. They also fit the preference for a game below the stated goals threshold, while leaving open the possibility of either team scoring.