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Match analysis · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

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Liberia 0-1 Mali: Match Analysis & Model Review

Liberia 0-1 Mali in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification, Tuesday, September 29: how the goal came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Mali beat Liberia 0-1 in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification, with Ange Martial Tia’s 79th minute goal deciding a match that was level at the break. The result was a 1-0 win for Mali over Liberia, and only Mali ever led.

The decisive moment came late, when Tia put Mali in front. Liberia did not find an equaliser, leaving Mali with the win and the only goal of the match.

How it unfolded

The teams reached half-time at 0-0. The deadlock held until the 79th minute, when Ange Martial Tia scored for Mali to make it 0-1. That was the match’s only goal: Liberia finished with no goals, Mali with one goal, and there was one goal overall.

The numbers

Mali had 68% possession, while Liberia recorded 32%. The shot count was 7 for Mali and 4 for Liberia; on target, Mali had 1 and Liberia 0. Those figures frame a contest in which Mali found the breakthrough but neither side registered a high number of efforts on target.

Mali won 6 corners and Liberia 2. The save totals were 1 for Liberia and 0 for Mali. The numbers show the difference between the teams came down to the goal rather than a sequence of scoring incidents: the match remained goalless until Tia’s finish, and no further goal followed.

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Standout performers

Salomon Tweh was Liberia’s best-rated player, with a rating of 7.1. For Mali, A. Tia earned a rating of 7.8 and had 1 goal; his contribution supplied the moment that settled the match.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, the model gave Liberia a win probability of 14.9%, a draw 24.6% and a Mali win 60.5%. These are estimates. Its pre-match call was Mali to win, and it assigned the actual outcome 60.5%.

The result means the model's most likely outcome happened. The final score 0-1 was the model's 1st-likeliest score, so the model’s scoreline assessment also matched the outcome on the pitch.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Liberia vs Mali

Tue, Sep 29 · 3:00 PM ET · Samuel Kanyon Doe Sports Complex

Full time

0–1

Half-time 0–0

  • 79'Ange Martial Tia0–1

The model before the game

Liberia
14.9%
Draw
24.6%
Mali
60.5%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

LiberiaStatisticMali
1saves0
4shots7
2corners6
32%possession68%
0shots on target1
Open the Match Center

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