Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Liberia 0–1 Mali. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Liberia host Mali in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Tuesday, September 29, with kick-off at 3:00 p.m. ET. The model’s forecast points towards the visitors: a Mali win (62.9%), then a draw (24%), then a Liberia win (13%). Its expected-goals figures assign Liberia 0.5 and Mali 1.8, while the likeliest exact scores all have Liberia on no goals. The match is scheduled for Samuel Kanyon Doe Sports Complex, Monrovia.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s expected-goals projection frames the contest around the scoring contributions it assigns to each side, and aligns with its stated lean: Mali to win. Its outcome ordering is a Mali win (62.9%), then a draw (24%), then a Liberia win (13%), with a Mali win the likeliest result. The draw and a Liberia win remain part of the model’s forecast, but are placed behind the visitors’ win in that ordering.
The model gives under 2.5 goals at 62.1% and over 2.5 goals at 37.9%. Its figure for both teams to score is 30.2%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 69.8%. The latter covers more than a goalless draw: it includes any outcome in which one team scores and the other does not. Together, those goal estimates describe an outlook in which a shutout is a meaningful possibility, rather than a prediction that both sides must find the net.
The most likely exact score is 0-1 at 19.6%; the next listed possibilities are 0-2 at 15.9% and 0-0 at 13.7%. These are individual scoreline possibilities, not a summary of every way the match could finish. Each has Liberia failing to score, and the leading scoreline gives Mali a narrow win. The score predictions add detail to the model’s overall preference for an away victory, while leaving other outcomes in its forecast.