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Match analysis · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

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Ghana 2-4 Gambia: Match Analysis & Model Review

Ghana 2-4 Gambia in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification, Tuesday, September 29: the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Ghana 2-4 Gambia in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Tuesday, September 29, with Gambia taking the points after a level half-time score of 2-2. The match produced six goals; Ghana scored two goals and Gambia scored four goals.

The result at Accra Sports Stadium set a clear contrast between possession and outcome. Ghana had 69% of the ball, but Gambia left with the win, converting its attacking output into enough goals to decide the match.

The numbers

Ghana registered 3 shots, all 3 of them on target. Gambia had 4 shots and 2 on target. The figures show that both sides put efforts on target, while the final score came from the goals rather than shot volume alone. They do not indicate the quality of those attempts, so the totals offer a measure of output, not a complete account of how each chance developed.

Ghana won 3 corners to Gambia’s 2. The saves count was 0 for Ghana and 1 for Gambia. Read alongside the possession split, those details describe different parts of the game: time on the ball, set-piece opportunities and interventions by the goalkeepers. None on its own explains the outcome, but together they underline that control of possession did not settle the match in Ghana’s favour. Gambia’s goals did.

The sides went into the interval level, and the final score shows that Gambia emerged with the decisive advantage by full time. Without a breakdown of when the goals came, the numbers cannot show precisely how the match shifted after the break. What they do establish is the contrast between Ghana’s share of the ball and Gambia’s eventual return in goals.

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Standout performers

F. Afena-Gyan was Ghana’s best-rated player, earning 7.9 and scoring 1 goal. For Gambia, M. Badamosi led the ratings with 7.1 and 1 goal. Both players found the net, but the individual ratings do not alter the wider story: Gambia’s team came away with the victory.

How the model called it

Goalorithm’s pre-match probabilities are estimates. The model gave Ghana a win probability of 39%, a draw probability of 26.8% and Gambia a win probability of 34.2%. It identified Ghana to win as the most likely outcome and assigned the actual result 34.2%.

The match finished differently from the model’s most likely call: the result went against the model's most likely outcome. The probabilities show that the model had included a Gambia win among its assessed outcomes, though it favoured Ghana before kick-off.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Ghana vs Gambia

Tue, Sep 29 · 12:00 PM ET · Accra Sports Stadium

Full time

2–4

Half-time 2–2

The model before the game

Ghana
39%
Draw
26.8%
Gambia
34.2%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

GhanaStatisticGambia
0saves1
3shots4
3corners2
69%possession31%
3shots on target2
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