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Match analysis · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

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Lesotho 0-2 Morocco: Match Analysis & Model Review

Lesotho 0-2 Morocco in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification, Tuesday, September 29: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Morocco beat Lesotho 0-2 in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Tuesday, September 29, with Brahim Díaz and Azzedine Ounahi scoring. The result was a 2-0 win for Morocco over Lesotho. Morocco had the lead at half-time, and the second goal arrived in the 82nd minute.

The interval score was Lesotho 0-1 Morocco. Only Morocco ever led. Morocco’s biggest advantage was a two-goal lead, at 0-2. Lesotho ended without a goal, while Morocco scored two goals; there were two goals in all.

How it unfolded

Brahim Díaz scored for Morocco in the 45th minute, making it 0-1. That remained the score at half-time. The goal gave Morocco the lead before the break, and the match moved into the interval with Lesotho yet to score.

In the 82nd minute, Azzedine Ounahi scored for Morocco to make it 0-2. That completed the scoring. The match finished 0-2, with no goals for Lesotho and two goals for Morocco.

The numbers

Lesotho recorded 6 shots, including 1 on target. Morocco had 19 shots, with 5 on target. The shot figures provide a picture of the attempts produced by each team; the on-target totals show how often those efforts required a save or were otherwise directed at goal.

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Matches
Predictions
My Picks

Possession was 20% for Lesotho and 80% for Morocco. Lesotho earned 5 corners and Morocco 6. The saves count was 3 for Lesotho and 1 for Morocco. Together, those figures describe a match with a substantial share of the ball for Morocco, while both sides had corners and both goalkeepers made saves.

Standout performers

A. Ounahi was Morocco’s best-rated player, with a rating of 8.2; his contribution included 1 goal. That performance came alongside Morocco’s second goal, which fixed the final score at 0-2.

Lesotho’s best-rated player was Bakuena Ramakatsa, rated 6.7. The rating marks his individual showing in a match where Lesotho finished with no goals.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, Goalorithm’s model gave Lesotho a win probability of 2.1%, a draw probability of 11.6%, and Morocco a win probability of 86.3%. These probabilities are estimates. The model’s most likely outcome was Morocco to win, and it gave that outcome 86.3%.

The model's most likely outcome happened. The final score 0-2 was the model's 1st-likeliest score. The model’s pre-match view and the result therefore aligned on the outcome, while the scoreline also held the model’s stated position among its score predictions.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Lesotho vs Morocco

Tue, Sep 29 · 9:00 AM ET

Full time

0–2

Half-time 0–1

  • 45'Brahim Díaz0–1
  • 82'Azzedine Ounahi0–2

The model before the game

Lesotho
2.1%
Draw
11.6%
Morocco
86.3%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

LesothoStatisticMorocco
3saves1
6shots19
5corners6
20%possession80%
1shots on target5
Open the Match Center

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