Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Lesotho 0–2 Morocco. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Lesotho host Morocco in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on Tuesday, September 29 at 9:00 a.m. ET. Goalorithm’s model makes a Morocco win the central story, with a clear away-side emphasis in its expected-goals projection. The scoring estimates also leave room for Lesotho to get on the scoresheet, even as the model’s likeliest exact results all have Morocco ahead.
What the model expects
Goalorithm’s probabilities are estimates. The model gives Morocco 91.2% to win, with 6.8% for a draw and 2% for Lesotho; its likeliest result is a Morocco win. The full outcome order is a Morocco win (91.2%), then a draw (6.8%), then a Lesotho win (2%), and the model’s lean is Morocco to win. That forecast identifies Morocco as the expected winner while retaining a possibility of either a draw or a Lesotho victory.
The model gives over 2.5 goals at 75.4% and under 2.5 goals at 24.6% for the total-goals line. It assigns 53.3% to both teams scoring and 46.7% to at least one side failing to score. Those are separate views of the scoring: the total-goals estimate concerns the combined tally, while the other pair concerns whether each team scores. Neither specifies how the goals would be divided between the sides.
Expected goals are 0.8 for Lesotho and 3.1 for Morocco. The leading exact-score estimates, with Lesotho listed first, are 0-2 (10%), 0-3 (9.7%) and 0-4 (7.5%). They describe the model’s most prominent scoreline scenarios, rather than a single definitive finish.