Every number says whose it is. No sport's numbers are validated as better than the bookmakers' yet. How we grade
Called off: Washington Mystics @ Atlanta Dream (cancelled); China v Turkmenistan (cancelled)
The bookmakers' favourite won 10 of 25 games.
Upset: South Korea were the bookmakers' 57% favourites and drew 0–0.
Our blend's call: wrong
Upset: China were the bookmakers' 36% favourites and lost 0–5.
Our blend's call: wrong
Upset: Congo DR were the bookmakers' 58% favourites and lost 0–2.
Our blend's call: wrong
Upset: Kazakhstan were the bookmakers' 50% favourites and lost 1–2.
Our blend's call: wrong
Our model's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
Upset: France were the bookmakers' 66% favourites and drew 1–1.
Our blend's call: wrong
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
Upset: Ukraine were the bookmakers' 48% favourites and lost 0–3.
Our blend's call: wrong
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
Upset: Sweden were the bookmakers' 39% favourites and drew 1–1.
Our blend's call: wrong
Upset: Slovakia were the bookmakers' 62% favourites and drew 1–1.
Our blend's call: wrong
Upset: Guadeloupe were the bookmakers' 43% favourites and lost 0–3.
Our blend's call: wrong
Upset: Cuba were the bookmakers' 57% favourites and drew 3–3.
Our blend's call: wrong
Upset: Suriname were the bookmakers' 43% favourites and drew 0–0.
Our blend's call: wrong
Upset: the Virginia Tech Hokies were the bookmakers' 53% favourites and lost 33–35.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
Upset: Honduras were the bookmakers' 49% favourites and lost 1–2.
Our blend's call: wrong
Upset: Colombia were the bookmakers' 55% favourites and lost 0–1.
Our blend's call: wrong
Upset: the Penn State Nittany Lions were the bookmakers' 55% favourites and lost 13–34.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
How each source has done, last 30 days
Soccer
Model + bookmakers blend (ours): its favourite won 59% of 369, after saying 53%: too cautious · Model (ours): too few to say (6). Over 463 matches in the last 60 days, the bookmakers' closing prices were slightly more accurate than ours.
NFL/College
Bookmakers: their favourite won 66% of 240, after their prices said 68% · Model (ours): too few to say (2) · Default (home side): too few to say (2).
MLB
No graded model of ours yet · Bookmakers: their favourite won 55% of 31, after their prices said 56%.
Basketball
No graded model of ours yet · Bookmakers: too few to say (16).