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Match analysis · CONCACAF Nations League

Research workspace

St. Kitts and Nevis 3-3 Cuba: Match Analysis & Model Review

St. Kitts and Nevis 3-3 Cuba in the CONCACAF Nations League, Friday, October 2: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

St. Kitts and Nevis and Cuba finished 3-3 in the CONCACAF Nations League on Friday, October 2, with a 3-3 draw. Both sides led at some point; the lead changed hands once; the score was levelled twice, and the half-time score was 1-2. Cuba held a two-goal lead at 1-3, but the late goals left the teams level.

The scoreline included goals for both sides and a brace for Yunior Perez. The match ended level after six goals across the game.

How it unfolded

Kyle Kelly scored for St. Kitts and Nevis in the 26th minute, making it 1-0. Yunior Perez equalised for Cuba in the 29th minute; then diego catasus put Cuba ahead in the 38th minute, making it 1-2.

Yunior Perez scored for Cuba in the 51st minute to make it 1-3, the point at which Cuba held a two-goal lead. St. Kitts and Nevis responded through Tyreece Simpson in the 82nd minute, before Tiquanny·Williams equalised in the 88th minute to complete the scoring.

The numbers

St. Kitts and Nevis scored three goals, Cuba scored three goals, and there were six goals overall. Yunior Perez scored two goals, registering a brace.

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Matches
Predictions
My Picks

The shot count was 1 for St. Kitts and Nevis and 2 for Cuba. Neither side recorded a shot on target: St. Kitts and Nevis had 0 and Cuba had 0. Possession was 31% for St. Kitts and Nevis and 69% for Cuba. The save totals were 1 for St. Kitts and Nevis and 0 for Cuba.

The possession figures show Cuba had the larger share of the ball, while the recorded shot counts and shots on target remained low for both teams. The final score, however, contained goals from each side, with the last two arriving for St. Kitts and Nevis late in the match.

Standout performers

Cuba's best-rated player was Y. Pérez, whose 8.6 rating came with 2 goals. Yunior Perez scored a brace: his first goal brought Cuba level at 1-1, and his later strike extended the lead to 1-3.

For St. Kitts and Nevis, Romaine Sawyers was the best-rated player, earning 7.8 with 1 assist. Tyreece Simpson scored St. Kitts and Nevis' second goal, and Tiquanny·Williams followed with the equaliser.

How the model called it

Before kickoff, the model gave St. Kitts and Nevis 19.6% to win, a draw 24.7%, and Cuba 55.7% to win. These probabilities are estimates. Its most likely outcome was Cuba to win; the model gave the actual result 24.7%, and the result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The model's most likely outcome was a win for Cuba, while the match finished level. The draw probability was 24.7%, and the model gave the actual result 24.7%.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

CONCACAF Nations League

St. Kitts and Nevis vs Cuba

Fri, Oct 2 · 5:00 PM ET · Hasely Crawford Stadium

Full time

3–3

Half-time 1–2

  • 26'Kyle Kelly1–0
  • 29'Yunior Perez1–1
  • 38'diego catasus1–2
  • 51'Yunior Perez1–3
  • 82'Tyreece Simpson2–3
  • 88'Tiquanny·Williams3–3

The model before the game

St. Kitts and Nevis
19.6%
Draw
24.7%
Cuba
55.7%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

St. Kitts and NevisStatisticCuba
1saves0
1shots2
31%possession69%
0shots on target0
Open the Match Center

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