Published September 30, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: St. Kitts and Nevis 3–3 Cuba. Read the match analysis →
Preview
St. Kitts and Nevis host Cuba in the CONCACAF Nations League on Friday, October 2, with kick-off at 5:00 p.m. ET at Hasely Crawford Stadium, Port of Spain. The model's likeliest result is a Cuba win; its expected-goals figures are St. Kitts and Nevis 1.3 and Cuba 1.3.
The model's outcome probabilities are estimates. Its ordering gives a Cuba win first, with a St. Kitts and Nevis win and a draw also in the picture.
What the model expects
The model's outcomes from likeliest down are a Cuba win (38.6%), then a St. Kitts and Nevis win (35.2%), then a draw (26.3%). The top outcome is therefore a Cuba win, though the model also assigns substantial probability to either of the other results. The probabilities describe a fixture with no single outcome dominating the forecast.
For goals, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 49.2% and under 2.5 goals at 50.8%. It gives both teams to score 53.5%, while at least one side fails to score is 46.5%. Those figures leave scope for different kinds of game, from a match with goals at both ends to one in which a team is kept off the scoresheet.
The likeliest exact score is 1-1 (10.8%). The next listed scores are 1-0 (10.2%) and 0-1 (10.1%). They offer three possible scorelines, with a draw and wins for either side represented.