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Match analysis · UEFA Nations League

Research workspace

France 1-1 Italy: Match Analysis & Model Review

France 1-1 Italy in the UEFA Nations League, Friday, October 2: the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 2, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

France and Italy finished 1-1 in the UEFA Nations League on Friday, October 2, with a 1-1 draw after a 0-0 first half. The match produced two goals, shared evenly between the sides, and the final score was 1-1.

Possession was split between France and Italy, while the recorded shot totals were sparse. The model had identified France to win as its likeliest outcome, but the match ended level.

The numbers

France had 54% possession and Italy had 46%. The shot count was 0 for France and 1 for Italy; shots on target were 0 and 1, respectively. The figures show only Italy registered a shot or an attempt on target.

France had 0 corners and Italy had 1. Saves were 1 for France and 0 for Italy. The match ended level despite the possession split, with the recorded attempts, corners and saves also giving a concise picture of the match’s limited statistical activity.

Standout performers

M. Olise was France’s best-rated player, with a rating of 8.2 and 1 goal. The goal was France’s scoring contribution in the draw.

For Italy, A. Bastoni earned the best rating, 7.7, and recorded 1 goal. Each side’s best-rated player scored, but neither goal was enough to deliver a win.

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How the model called it

Before kickoff, Goalorithm’s model gave France a 64% chance of winning, assigned the draw 20.5%, and gave Italy a 15.5% chance. These probabilities are estimates. The model’s most likely outcome was France to win; it gave the actual result 20.5%, and the result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The final score 1-1 was the model's 3rd-likeliest score. The model’s leading outcome and its assessment of the exact score are distinct: the predicted outcome was France to win, while the scoreline was rated as the model's 3rd-likeliest score.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

France vs Italy

Fri, Oct 2 · 2:45 PM ET · Stade de France

Full time

1–1

Half-time 0–0

The model before the game

France
64.1%
Draw
20.5%
Italy
15.5%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

FranceStatisticItaly
1saves0
0shots1
0corners1
54%possession46%
0shots on target1
Open the Match Center

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