Published September 28, 2026 · Updated October 1, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: France 1–1 Italy. Read the match analysis →
Preview
France host Italy in the UEFA Nations League on Friday, October 2 at 2:45 p.m. ET. In the table, France sit above Italy. France arrive after a 1-0 away win against Belgium on September 28, while the model’s forecast centres on a France win. The model’s probabilities are estimates, and they give a clear account of how it sees the match without deciding the result in advance.
The game is at Stade de France, Paris. France’s recent results and the group table frame the contest; the model’s projected goals and scorelines offer a more specific picture of the challenge Italy face and the scoring routes it sees for both teams.
What the model expects
The model’s outcome order is a France win (65.1%), then a draw (19.5%), then an Italy win (15.4%). Its stated lean is France to win. A France win is the likeliest result in that forecast, with a draw and an Italy win also represented. The probabilities describe the model’s view of the possible outcomes, rather than a certainty about how the match will unfold.
The goals forecast is over 2.5 goals at 64.6% and under 2.5 goals at 35.4%. Expected goals are 2.3 for France and 1.1 for Italy. The leading scoreline is 2-1 at 9.2%; next are 2-0 at 9.1% and 1-1 at 8.7%. Those projected scores include both a France win and a draw, keeping the model’s expectation focused on a match in which the home side can score multiple goals, while leaving more than one outcome in view.